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A Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer is a quantum computer sufficiently powerful to break current public-key cryptography (RSA, ECC, Diffie-Hellman) used to secure most digital communications. "Cryptographically relevant" means the quantum computer has enough high-quality qubits and low enough error rates to execute Shor's algorithm effectively against real-world key sizes. Estimates for CRQC requirements vary: traditional estimates suggest 20 million physical qubits needed to factor RSA-2048; recent research (Wei et al., 2022) suggests only 372 physical qubits might suffice with optimized quantum circuits; Google's Willow chip (December 2024) demonstrated 105 qubits with breakthrough error correction; IBM Quantum System Two shows 1,121 superconducting qubits. CRQC timeline estimates: 1-in-7 chance by 2026, 1-in-2 chance by 2031 (Ultimaco); BSI estimates within 16 years, possibly sooner; China, US leading global CRQC race with $40B+ investment. Unlike general quantum computers solving optimization problems, CRQC specifically threatens cryptographic security.
The uncertainty around CRQC arrival creates planning challenges. Organizations must prepare before CRQC exists because post-quantum migration takes years. CRQC represents "hard deadline" for quantum security - once adversaries possess CRQC, all vulnerable encrypted data becomes readable instantly, and damage is irreversible. The gap between CRQC development and public announcement could be years (nation-states might secretly achieve CRQC first). Public Safety Canada, ISED, and CSE work with critical infrastructure partners ensuring protection from CRQC threat.
When CRQC emerges, every system using RSA/ECC becomes vulnerable simultaneously worldwide. Healthcare organizations face permanent exposure of 50+ year medical records. Financial institutions lose transaction security for $5T+ daily processing. Governments suffer classified information breaches spanning decades. Blockchain/cryptocurrency sees $2T+ value at risk. Organizations that completed quantum migration before CRQC remain secure; those that delayed face catastrophic compromise. The first nation achieving CRQC gains massive intelligence advantage over adversaries.
Setting quantum security investment priorities based on CRQC timeline estimates, justifying aggressive quantum migration schedules to leadership, determining which systems need immediate quantum protection vs. those with time, evaluating long-term data sensitivity against CRQC risk, planning cryptographic agility to adapt as CRQC estimates change, developing threat models for nation-state CRQC capabilities, informing public policy and regulatory requirements for quantum security
https://www.qnulabs.com/ | https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.12372 | https://www.qnulabs.com/blog/
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