Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)

A Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer is a quantum computer sufficiently powerful to break current public-key cryptography (RSA, ECC, Diffie-Hellman) used to secure most digital communications. "Cryptographically relevant" means the quantum computer has enough high-quality qubits and low enough error rates to execute Shor's algorithm effectively against real-world key sizes.

Estimates for CRQC requirements vary: traditional estimates suggest 20 million physical qubits needed to factor RSA-2048; recent research (Wei et al., 2022) suggests only 372 physical qubits might suffice with optimized quantum circuits; Google's Willow chip (December 2024) demonstrated 105 qubits with breakthrough error correction; IBM Quantum System Two shows 1,121 superconducting qubits. CRQC timeline estimates: 1-in-7 chance by 2026, 1-in-2 chance by 2031 (Ultimaco); BSI estimates within 16 years, possibly sooner; China, US leading global CRQC race with $40B+ investment. Unlike general quantum computers solving optimization problems, CRQC specifically threatens cryptographic security.

The uncertainty around CRQC arrival creates planning challenges. Organizations must prepare before CRQC exists because post-quantum migration takes years. CRQC represents "hard deadline" for quantum security - once adversaries possess CRQC, all vulnerable encrypted data becomes readable instantly, and damage is irreversible. The gap between CRQC development and public announcement could be years (nation-states might secretly achieve CRQC first). Public Safety Canada, ISED, and CSE work with critical infrastructure partners ensuring protection from CRQC threat.

When CRQC emerges, every system using RSA/ECC becomes vulnerable simultaneously worldwide. Healthcare organizations face permanent exposure of 50+ year medical records. Financial institutions lose transaction security for $5T+ daily processing. Governments suffer classified information breaches spanning decades. Blockchain/cryptocurrency sees $2T+ value at risk. Organizations that completed quantum migration before CRQC remain secure; those that delayed face catastrophic compromise. The first nation achieving CRQC gains massive intelligence advantage over adversaries.